Every race at Southwell in the OddsLens results database from 17 March 2025 to 3 September 2026: 707 flat races and 118 jumps races, 7,419 runners at official starting price. What the numbers say, recomputed every week and never edited by hand.
Across 707 races the favourite won 32.2% of the time (242 of 752 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one lost 13.7p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course on the flat (including the all-weather track) over the same window won 32.9% and lost 11.7p in the pound. Much the same as everywhere else.
Across 118 races the favourite won 32.5% of the time (41 of 126 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one lost 24.4p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course over jumps over the same window won 35.2% and lost 10.3p in the pound. Favourites here have been a worse bet than the national picture.
| Ground | Races | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good or faster | 70 | 28.8% | −35.7% |
| Soft or heavy | 48 | 37.7% | −8.8% |
Flat races with eight or more runners, each field split into thirds by stall number, and the winners counted. A third that wins more than its share of the runners is where the stalls have helped.
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 36.1% | 33.5% |
| Middle third | 33.7% | 30.1% |
| Highest third | 30.2% | 36.4% |
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 36.4% | 35.6% |
| Middle third | 33.7% | 36.4% |
| Highest third | 30.0% | 28.3% |
Over five and six furlongs the thirds have won roughly in proportion to their numbers: no draw bias worth the name. (173 races.) Over seven furlongs to a mile the thirds have won roughly in proportion to their numbers: no draw bias worth the name. (247 races.) Thirds are by stall number, so the lowest third holds the spare runner when a field does not divide by three; that is why the runner shares are unequal.
23 handicaps with 14 or more runners, an average field of 14.0. The winner's average starting price was about 8/1; 8 winners came in at 10/1 or bigger and 1 at 20/1 or bigger. Favourites won 6 of 26 and £1 on each lost 7.4p in the pound — on a small sample.
Trainers and jockeys with at least 15 runners and four winners here in the window. Strike rate is wins over runs; the return is £1 on every runner at SP. Thirty runs is a small sample, and the yards with the best strike rates are usually the yards with the best horses everywhere.
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Herrington | 21 / 128 | 16.4% | +9.6% |
| James Owen | 19 / 153 | 12.4% | −41.7% |
| James Tate | 17 / 59 | 28.8% | +4.9% |
| Andrew Balding | 15 / 101 | 14.9% | −26.6% |
| Ian Williams | 14 / 103 | 13.6% | −10.4% |
| Ralph Beckett | 13 / 40 | 32.5% | +5.5% |
| Michael Appleby | 13 / 124 | 10.5% | +1.3% |
| K R Burke | 12 / 58 | 20.7% | −37.0% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Crouch | 26 / 114 | 22.8% | −0.7% |
| Billy Loughnane | 18 / 125 | 14.4% | −21.5% |
| Jason Hart | 17 / 108 | 15.7% | −5.2% |
| Rob Hornby | 16 / 85 | 18.8% | +46.3% |
| Dylan Hogan | 16 / 110 | 14.5% | +47.1% |
| P J McDonald | 15 / 122 | 12.3% | −25.6% |
| Callum Rodriguez | 14 / 83 | 16.9% | −29.1% |
| Luke Morris | 14 / 159 | 8.8% | −53.1% |
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olly Murphy | 14 / 31 | 45.2% | +64.6% |
| James Owen | 7 / 26 | 26.9% | −40.3% |
| T Ellis | 5 / 19 | 26.3% | +8.2% |
| Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero | 5 / 26 | 19.2% | +67.3% |
| Christian Williams | 5 / 27 | 18.5% | +79.1% |
| Warren Greatrex | 4 / 15 | 26.7% | −26.4% |
| Sam England | 4 / 19 | 21.1% | +9.2% |
| Stuart Edmunds | 4 / 19 | 21.1% | −5.7% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Bowen | 18 / 52 | 34.6% | +12.6% |
| Toby Wynne | 6 / 16 | 37.5% | +334.4% |
| Jack Andrews | 6 / 20 | 30.0% | +47.8% |
| Jonathan Burke | 6 / 20 | 30.0% | +72.7% |
| Jack Tudor | 5 / 25 | 20.0% | +93.4% |
| Gavin Sheehan | 4 / 15 | 26.7% | +40.0% |
| James Bowen | 4 / 18 | 22.2% | +25.0% |
| Harry Bannister | 4 / 19 | 21.1% | +3.9% |
Since 9 April 2026 the OddsLens model has made 155 calls at Southwell, each logged before the off with the best price at that moment. 41 won, a 26.5% strike rate, for a +1.2% return at the logged prices and an average closing line value of +7.7%. That makes Southwell about par for the model so far; every one of those calls, and every call to come, sits on the public record, wins and losses alike.
Method. Every settled race at Southwell in the OddsLens results database from 17 March 2025 to 3 September 2026 (official returns, starting price, non-runners excluded; the course's all-weather track counts as flat). "Favourite" means the shortest starting price in the race; joint favourites are each backed for £1. Ground is the official going for the meeting: soft, heavy and their variants against everything else. The draw study uses flat races with at least eight drawn runners, in two bands (five to six and a half furlongs; seven furlongs to a mile and half a furlong), each field split into thirds by stall number. Big handicaps are races with "handicap" in the title and 14 or more runners at SP. The OddsLens record is the public ledger only (no shadow models), settled calls, at the prices logged before the off. Sections with too few races to say anything true are left out. Recomputed weekly; this page was built on 10 September 2026.