Every race at Nottingham in the OddsLens results database from 9 April 2025 to 14 October 2026: 282 flat races, 2,217 runners at official starting price. What the numbers say, recomputed every week and never edited by hand.
Across 282 races the favourite won 32.6% of the time (98 of 301 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one lost 13.7p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course on the flat over the same window won 32.9% and lost 11.6p in the pound. Much the same as everywhere else.
| Ground | Races | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good or faster | 238 | 33.1% | −14.6% |
| Soft or heavy | 44 | 30.0% | −9.1% |
Flat races with eight or more runners, each field split into thirds by stall number, and the winners counted. A third that wins more than its share of the runners is where the stalls have helped.
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 36.3% | 39.6% |
| Middle third | 34.0% | 37.7% |
| Highest third | 29.7% | 22.6% |
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 35.9% | 35.8% |
| Middle third | 34.0% | 30.2% |
| Highest third | 30.1% | 34.0% |
Over five and six furlongs the thirds have won roughly in proportion to their numbers: no draw bias worth the name. (53 races.) Over seven furlongs to a mile the thirds have won roughly in proportion to their numbers: no draw bias worth the name. (53 races.) Thirds are by stall number, so the lowest third holds the spare runner when a field does not divide by three; that is why the runner shares are unequal.
12 handicaps with 14 or more runners, an average field of 14.6. The winner's average starting price was about 10/1; 4 winners came in at 10/1 or bigger and 2 at 20/1 or bigger. Favourites won 3 of 15 and £1 on each lost 5.0p in the pound — on a small sample.
Trainers and jockeys with at least 15 runners and four winners here in the window. Strike rate is wins over runs; the return is £1 on every runner at SP. Thirty runs is a small sample, and the yards with the best strike rates are usually the yards with the best horses everywhere.
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Varian | 12 / 33 | 36.4% | +65.2% |
| Ed Walker | 10 / 41 | 24.4% | +35.6% |
| Paul Midgley | 9 / 38 | 23.7% | +15.7% |
| Tim Easterby | 9 / 65 | 13.8% | −35.4% |
| William Haggas | 8 / 38 | 21.1% | −27.1% |
| Eve Johnson Houghton | 7 / 17 | 41.2% | +157.8% |
| Michael Appleby | 7 / 52 | 13.5% | −22.0% |
| Jonathan Portman | 6 / 22 | 27.3% | +45.3% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Dawson | 11 / 44 | 25.0% | +34.4% |
| Cieren Fallon | 11 / 47 | 23.4% | +6.4% |
| Hector Crouch | 7 / 49 | 14.3% | −43.4% |
| Rob Hornby | 7 / 49 | 14.3% | −42.9% |
| Jason Hart | 6 / 22 | 27.3% | +92.0% |
| Billy Loughnane | 6 / 26 | 23.1% | +9.6% |
| Robert Havlin | 6 / 26 | 23.1% | +4.2% |
| Saffie Osborne | 6 / 28 | 21.4% | −0.9% |
Since 18 April 2026 the OddsLens model has made 132 calls at Nottingham, each logged before the off with the best price at that moment. 38 won, a 28.8% strike rate, for a −13.0% return at the logged prices and an average closing line value of +9.4%. That makes Nottingham one of the model's weaker tracks so far; every one of those calls, and every call to come, sits on the public record, wins and losses alike.
Method. Every settled race at Nottingham in the OddsLens results database from 9 April 2025 to 14 October 2026 (official returns, starting price, non-runners excluded). "Favourite" means the shortest starting price in the race; joint favourites are each backed for £1. Ground is the official going for the meeting: soft, heavy and their variants against everything else. The draw study uses flat races with at least eight drawn runners, in two bands (five to six and a half furlongs; seven furlongs to a mile and half a furlong), each field split into thirds by stall number. Big handicaps are races with "handicap" in the title and 14 or more runners at SP. The OddsLens record is the public ledger only (no shadow models), settled calls, at the prices logged before the off. Sections with too few races to say anything true are left out. Recomputed weekly; this page was built on 26 October 2026.