Every race at Newcastle in the OddsLens results database from 20 March 2025 to 20 October 2026: 747 flat races and 81 jumps races, 7,636 runners at official starting price. What the numbers say, recomputed every week and never edited by hand.
Across 747 races the favourite won 30.5% of the time (245 of 802 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one lost 14.6p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course on the flat (including the all-weather track) over the same window won 32.9% and lost 11.6p in the pound. Much the same as everywhere else.
Across 81 races the favourite won 34.5% of the time (30 of 87 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one lost 5.3p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course over jumps over the same window won 35.1% and lost 10.7p in the pound. Favourites here lose less than the national picture.
Flat races with eight or more runners, each field split into thirds by stall number, and the winners counted. A third that wins more than its share of the runners is where the stalls have helped.
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 36.3% | 37.6% |
| Middle third | 33.9% | 29.0% |
| Highest third | 29.9% | 33.3% |
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 36.3% | 36.2% |
| Middle third | 33.8% | 38.4% |
| Highest third | 29.9% | 25.8% |
Over five and six furlongs the thirds have won roughly in proportion to their numbers: no draw bias worth the name. (210 races.) Over seven furlongs to a mile the thirds have won roughly in proportion to their numbers: no draw bias worth the name. (229 races.) Thirds are by stall number, so the lowest third holds the spare runner when a field does not divide by three; that is why the runner shares are unequal.
54 handicaps with 14 or more runners, an average field of 14.4. The winner's average starting price was about 14/1; 19 winners came in at 10/1 or bigger and 8 at 20/1 or bigger. Favourites won 11 of 61 and £1 on each lost 25.1p in the pound.
Trainers and jockeys with at least 15 runners and four winners here in the window. Strike rate is wins over runs; the return is £1 on every runner at SP. Thirty runs is a small sample, and the yards with the best strike rates are usually the yards with the best horses everywhere.
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Balding | 27 / 89 | 30.3% | +56.6% |
| Jim Goldie | 21 / 185 | 11.4% | −7.7% |
| Iain Jardine | 21 / 201 | 10.4% | +3.0% |
| Charlie Johnston | 19 / 107 | 17.8% | +30.4% |
| Antony Brittain | 19 / 163 | 11.7% | +45.0% |
| Ben Haslam | 18 / 102 | 17.6% | +10.5% |
| Ivan Furtado | 17 / 149 | 11.4% | −21.6% |
| Paul Midgley | 16 / 106 | 15.1% | +45.3% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Hart | 34 / 245 | 13.9% | −7.7% |
| P J McDonald | 27 / 153 | 17.6% | −22.4% |
| Paul Mulrennan | 24 / 277 | 8.7% | −48.4% |
| Cam Hardie | 21 / 254 | 8.3% | +11.0% |
| David Nolan | 20 / 190 | 10.5% | −29.1% |
| Billy Loughnane | 19 / 95 | 20.0% | −18.8% |
| Andrew Mullen | 17 / 187 | 9.1% | +2.8% |
| Shane Gray | 16 / 77 | 20.8% | +121.4% |
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith | 8 / 28 | 28.6% | −7.1% |
| Nicky Richards | 6 / 19 | 31.6% | +17.1% |
| Rebecca Menzies | 4 / 26 | 15.4% | +5.8% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danny McMenamin | 11 / 38 | 28.9% | +30.5% |
| Brian Hughes | 6 / 30 | 20.0% | +3.5% |
| Ryan Mania | 4 / 27 | 14.8% | +26.9% |
| Callum Bewley | 4 / 32 | 12.5% | −44.9% |
Since 11 April 2026 the OddsLens model has made 160 calls at Newcastle, each logged before the off with the best price at that moment. 44 won, a 27.5% strike rate, for a −6.3% return at the logged prices and an average closing line value of +10.0%. That makes Newcastle one of the model's weaker tracks so far; every one of those calls, and every call to come, sits on the public record, wins and losses alike.
Method. Every settled race at Newcastle in the OddsLens results database from 20 March 2025 to 20 October 2026 (official returns, starting price, non-runners excluded; the course's all-weather track counts as flat). "Favourite" means the shortest starting price in the race; joint favourites are each backed for £1. Ground is the official going for the meeting: soft, heavy and their variants against everything else. The draw study uses flat races with at least eight drawn runners, in two bands (five to six and a half furlongs; seven furlongs to a mile and half a furlong), each field split into thirds by stall number. Big handicaps are races with "handicap" in the title and 14 or more runners at SP. The OddsLens record is the public ledger only (no shadow models), settled calls, at the prices logged before the off. Sections with too few races to say anything true are left out. Recomputed weekly; this page was built on 26 October 2026.