Every race at Navan in the OddsLens results database from 22 March 2025 to 21 October 2026: 155 flat races and 73 jumps races, 2,858 runners at official starting price. What the numbers say, recomputed every week and never edited by hand.
Across 155 races the favourite won 30.6% of the time (53 of 173 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one returned a profit of 0.3p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course on the flat over the same window won 32.9% and lost 11.6p in the pound. That makes Navan one of the few courses where backing every favourite on the flat has not lost money in this window, on a sample this size; a tendency, not a system.
| Ground | Races | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good or faster | 125 | 30.5% | −0.5% |
| Soft or heavy | 30 | 31.3% | +3.8% |
Across 73 races the favourite won 37.7% of the time (29 of 77 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one lost 3.7p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course over jumps over the same window won 35.1% and lost 10.7p in the pound. Favourites here lose less than the national picture.
Flat races with eight or more runners, each field split into thirds by stall number, and the winners counted. A third that wins more than its share of the runners is where the stalls have helped.
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 35.8% | 36.8% |
| Middle third | 33.1% | 26.3% |
| Highest third | 31.1% | 36.8% |
Over five and six furlongs the thirds have won roughly in proportion to their numbers: no draw bias worth the name. (57 races.) Thirds are by stall number, so the lowest third holds the spare runner when a field does not divide by three; that is why the runner shares are unequal.
39 handicaps with 14 or more runners, an average field of 18.3. The winner's average starting price was about 10/1; 11 winners came in at 10/1 or bigger and 3 at 20/1 or bigger. Favourites won 12 of 47 and £1 on each returned a profit of 20.0p in the pound.
15 handicaps with 14 or more runners, an average field of 16.7. The winner's average starting price was about 11/1; 7 winners came in at 10/1 or bigger and 2 at 20/1 or bigger. Favourites won 3 of 17 and £1 on each lost 11.8p in the pound — on a small sample.
Trainers and jockeys with at least 15 runners and four winners here in the window. Strike rate is wins over runs; the return is £1 on every runner at SP. Thirty runs is a small sample, and the yards with the best strike rates are usually the yards with the best horses everywhere.
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| A P O'Brien | 14 / 49 | 28.6% | +22.3% |
| J P Murtagh | 7 / 56 | 12.5% | −51.9% |
| Joseph Patrick O'Brien | 7 / 73 | 9.6% | −49.7% |
| G M Lyons | 6 / 40 | 15.0% | −20.6% |
| Adrian McGuinness | 6 / 48 | 12.5% | +39.6% |
| Michael Mulvany | 6 / 50 | 12.0% | +52.0% |
| Andrew Slattery | 5 / 36 | 13.9% | −3.1% |
| W McCreery | 5 / 42 | 11.9% | +7.1% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Keane | 13 / 72 | 18.1% | +7.8% |
| Ben Coen | 12 / 91 | 13.2% | −37.5% |
| Chris Hayes | 9 / 83 | 10.8% | +12.7% |
| Wayne Lordan | 8 / 45 | 17.8% | −30.9% |
| W J Lee | 8 / 67 | 11.9% | −48.7% |
| J M Sheridan | 6 / 47 | 12.8% | −12.9% |
| Dylan Browne McMonagle | 6 / 51 | 11.8% | −34.7% |
| Adam Caffrey | 5 / 40 | 12.5% | +446.3% |
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Elliott | 14 / 121 | 11.6% | −49.9% |
| W P Mullins | 10 / 32 | 31.3% | +60.0% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Kennedy | 9 / 49 | 18.4% | −42.9% |
| Paul Townend | 6 / 17 | 35.3% | −31.3% |
| Brian Hayes | 6 / 21 | 28.6% | +74.6% |
| Danny Gilligan | 5 / 34 | 14.7% | +1.8% |
Since 25 April 2026 the OddsLens model has made 67 calls at Navan, each logged before the off with the best price at that moment. 20 won, a 29.9% strike rate, for a +43.0% return at the logged prices and an average closing line value of +9.2%. That makes Navan one of the model's better tracks so far; every one of those calls, and every call to come, sits on the public record, wins and losses alike.
Method. Every settled race at Navan in the OddsLens results database from 22 March 2025 to 21 October 2026 (official returns, starting price, non-runners excluded). "Favourite" means the shortest starting price in the race; joint favourites are each backed for £1. Ground is the official going for the meeting: soft, heavy and their variants against everything else. The draw study uses flat races with at least eight drawn runners, in two bands (five to six and a half furlongs; seven furlongs to a mile and half a furlong), each field split into thirds by stall number. Big handicaps are races with "handicap" in the title and 14 or more runners at SP. The OddsLens record is the public ledger only (no shadow models), settled calls, at the prices logged before the off. Sections with too few races to say anything true are left out. Recomputed weekly; this page was built on 26 October 2026.