Every race at Kempton in the OddsLens results database from 26 March 2025 to 9 September 2026: 598 flat races and 70 jumps races, 6,241 runners at official starting price. What the numbers say, recomputed every week and never edited by hand.
Across 598 races the favourite won 35.6% of the time (227 of 638 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one lost 7.4p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course on the flat (including the all-weather track) over the same window won 32.9% and lost 11.7p in the pound. Favourites here lose less than the national picture.
Across 70 races the favourite won 40.3% of the time (29 of 72 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one returned a profit of 2.4p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course over jumps over the same window won 35.2% and lost 10.3p in the pound. That makes Kempton one of the few courses where backing every favourite over jumps has not lost money in this window, on a sample this size; a tendency, not a system.
Flat races with eight or more runners, each field split into thirds by stall number, and the winners counted. A third that wins more than its share of the runners is where the stalls have helped.
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 36.3% | 45.2% |
| Middle third | 33.8% | 32.3% |
| Highest third | 29.9% | 22.6% |
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 36.3% | 40.8% |
| Middle third | 33.6% | 38.6% |
| Highest third | 30.2% | 20.6% |
Over five and six furlongs the low stalls have won 45.2% of the races from 36.3% of the runners: a real lean to low. (93 races.) Over seven furlongs to a mile the thirds have won roughly in proportion to their numbers: no draw bias worth the name. (272 races.) Thirds are by stall number, so the lowest third holds the spare runner when a field does not divide by three; that is why the runner shares are unequal.
21 handicaps with 14 or more runners, an average field of 14.0. The winner's average starting price was about 9/1; 8 winners came in at 10/1 or bigger and 3 at 20/1 or bigger. Favourites won 4 of 22 and £1 on each lost 20.5p in the pound — on a small sample.
Trainers and jockeys with at least 15 runners and four winners here in the window. Strike rate is wins over runs; the return is £1 on every runner at SP. Thirty runs is a small sample, and the yards with the best strike rates are usually the yards with the best horses everywhere.
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Balding | 29 / 171 | 17.0% | −33.4% |
| Charlie Appleby | 26 / 46 | 56.5% | +33.4% |
| John Butler | 26 / 107 | 24.3% | +77.2% |
| John & Thady Gosden | 23 / 90 | 25.6% | −10.2% |
| James Fanshawe | 17 / 105 | 16.2% | −11.6% |
| Roger Varian | 15 / 78 | 19.2% | −29.8% |
| Ralph Beckett | 15 / 88 | 17.0% | −19.3% |
| George Boughey | 14 / 71 | 19.7% | −13.7% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oisin Murphy | 46 / 192 | 24.0% | −14.8% |
| Billy Loughnane | 35 / 210 | 16.7% | −29.6% |
| Rossa Ryan | 31 / 176 | 17.6% | +0.3% |
| William Buick | 21 / 51 | 41.2% | +10.7% |
| Daniel Muscutt | 21 / 150 | 14.0% | −6.1% |
| Lewis Edmunds | 19 / 125 | 15.2% | +17.0% |
| Cieren Fallon | 17 / 101 | 16.8% | −3.9% |
| Hector Crouch | 17 / 108 | 15.7% | −37.4% |
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 7 / 24 | 29.2% | +95.1% |
| Harry Derham | 4 / 18 | 22.2% | −3.2% |
| Dan Skelton | 4 / 37 | 10.8% | −74.0% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul O'Brien | 5 / 17 | 29.4% | +21.6% |
| Sean Bowen | 5 / 18 | 27.8% | +7.7% |
| Tom Bellamy | 5 / 20 | 25.0% | −9.8% |
| James Bowen | 4 / 16 | 25.0% | +142.2% |
| Ben Jones | 4 / 20 | 20.0% | −21.9% |
Since 30 April 2026 the OddsLens model has made 123 calls at Kempton, each logged before the off with the best price at that moment. 34 won, a 27.6% strike rate, for a −2.2% return at the logged prices and an average closing line value of +13.2%. That makes Kempton about par for the model so far; every one of those calls, and every call to come, sits on the public record, wins and losses alike.
Method. Every settled race at Kempton in the OddsLens results database from 26 March 2025 to 9 September 2026 (official returns, starting price, non-runners excluded; the course's all-weather track counts as flat). "Favourite" means the shortest starting price in the race; joint favourites are each backed for £1. Ground is the official going for the meeting: soft, heavy and their variants against everything else. The draw study uses flat races with at least eight drawn runners, in two bands (five to six and a half furlongs; seven furlongs to a mile and half a furlong), each field split into thirds by stall number. Big handicaps are races with "handicap" in the title and 14 or more runners at SP. The OddsLens record is the public ledger only (no shadow models), settled calls, at the prices logged before the off. Sections with too few races to say anything true are left out. Recomputed weekly; this page was built on 10 September 2026.