Every race at Doncaster in the OddsLens results database from 29 March 2025 to 24 October 2026: 361 flat races and 73 jumps races, 4,111 runners at official starting price. What the numbers say, recomputed every week and never edited by hand.
Across 361 races the favourite won 33.6% of the time (131 of 390 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one returned a profit of 0.7p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course on the flat over the same window won 32.9% and lost 11.6p in the pound. That makes Doncaster one of the few courses where backing every favourite on the flat has not lost money in this window, on a sample this size; a tendency, not a system.
| Ground | Races | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good or faster | 226 | 35.3% | +4.2% |
| Soft or heavy | 135 | 30.9% | −4.9% |
Across 73 races the favourite won 37.2% of the time (29 of 78 bets, joint favourites counted separately) and £1 on every one lost 9.6p in the pound. The same bet at every UK and Irish course over jumps over the same window won 35.1% and lost 10.7p in the pound. Much the same as everywhere else.
Flat races with eight or more runners, each field split into thirds by stall number, and the winners counted. A third that wins more than its share of the runners is where the stalls have helped.
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 36.2% | 35.2% |
| Middle third | 33.5% | 38.5% |
| Highest third | 30.4% | 26.4% |
| Stalls | Share of runners | Share of winners |
|---|---|---|
| Lowest third | 36.1% | 49.6% |
| Middle third | 33.3% | 26.9% |
| Highest third | 30.7% | 23.5% |
Over five and six furlongs the thirds have won roughly in proportion to their numbers: no draw bias worth the name. (91 races.) Over seven furlongs to a mile the low stalls have won 49.6% of the races from 36.1% of the runners: a real lean to low. (119 races.) Thirds are by stall number, so the lowest third holds the spare runner when a field does not divide by three; that is why the runner shares are unequal.
54 handicaps with 14 or more runners, an average field of 16.7. The winner's average starting price was about 11/1; 17 winners came in at 10/1 or bigger and 8 at 20/1 or bigger. Favourites won 16 of 62 and £1 on each returned a profit of 18.6p in the pound.
Trainers and jockeys with at least 15 runners and four winners here in the window. Strike rate is wins over runs; the return is £1 on every runner at SP. Thirty runs is a small sample, and the yards with the best strike rates are usually the yards with the best horses everywhere.
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Hannon | 13 / 69 | 18.8% | −5.5% |
| Andrew Balding | 13 / 75 | 17.3% | +11.8% |
| David O'Meara | 13 / 122 | 10.7% | −18.7% |
| Roger Varian | 11 / 41 | 26.8% | −10.2% |
| William Haggas | 11 / 56 | 19.6% | −15.1% |
| John & Thady Gosden | 10 / 41 | 24.4% | +20.3% |
| K R Burke | 10 / 62 | 16.1% | −28.5% |
| Charlie Appleby | 9 / 36 | 25.0% | +34.0% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oisin Murphy | 14 / 66 | 21.2% | +33.5% |
| Callum Rodriguez | 13 / 53 | 24.5% | +8.5% |
| Sean Levey | 13 / 59 | 22.0% | +18.0% |
| Billy Loughnane | 12 / 64 | 18.8% | −24.8% |
| James Doyle | 9 / 32 | 28.1% | −8.1% |
| David Egan | 9 / 42 | 21.4% | −9.4% |
| Kevin Stott | 9 / 55 | 16.4% | −15.9% |
| Daniel Tudhope | 9 / 70 | 12.9% | −44.5% |
| Trainer | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Mulholland | 5 / 16 | 31.3% | +80.8% |
| Dan Skelton | 4 / 21 | 19.0% | −42.9% |
| Jockey | Wins / runs | Strike rate | £1 return |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Bowen | 7 / 20 | 35.0% | +2.4% |
| Brian Hughes | 7 / 29 | 24.1% | +3.7% |
| Jack Quinlan | 4 / 16 | 25.0% | +1.4% |
Since 24 April 2026 the OddsLens model has made 144 calls at Doncaster, each logged before the off with the best price at that moment. 40 won, a 27.8% strike rate, for a +12.3% return at the logged prices and an average closing line value of +10.6%. That makes Doncaster one of the model's better tracks so far; every one of those calls, and every call to come, sits on the public record, wins and losses alike.
Method. Every settled race at Doncaster in the OddsLens results database from 29 March 2025 to 24 October 2026 (official returns, starting price, non-runners excluded). "Favourite" means the shortest starting price in the race; joint favourites are each backed for £1. Ground is the official going for the meeting: soft, heavy and their variants against everything else. The draw study uses flat races with at least eight drawn runners, in two bands (five to six and a half furlongs; seven furlongs to a mile and half a furlong), each field split into thirds by stall number. Big handicaps are races with "handicap" in the title and 14 or more runners at SP. The OddsLens record is the public ledger only (no shadow models), settled calls, at the prices logged before the off. Sections with too few races to say anything true are left out. Recomputed weekly; this page was built on 26 October 2026.